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Foster Capital Growth

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.4%
Max Drawdown
63.5%
Trades
1635
Win Trades
32.3%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
36.3%

About this strategy

Foster Capital Management

• We trade only the very best growth stocks. Our focus is on quality.
• We look for leading companies in leading industries, the true market leaders. Each company is researched in depth before its stock is purchased.
• Our positions are typically held for 4 to 12 weeks. For the truly great stocks with big institutional demand, we'll hold for even bigger gains.
• Our proprietary position sizing strategy is a core element of our growth fund.
• Each stock is purchased at a carefully selected buy point to maximize profitability.
• We have strict sell rules which ensure losses on every trade are capped and profits are taken off the table when a stock comes under selling pressure. Losses are capped to a maximum of the predefined stop-loss, 1% of account equity.

http://www.fostercapital.co.uk/

Sector: Technology

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20174.7-8.710.67.12.713.53.97.146.8
20182.8-16.0-2.1-0.32.53.3-2.726.82.1-14.4-5.6-4.9-13.5
20198.38.9-1.78.7-7.8-4.14.5-5.3-4.0-1.77.17.119.3
20207.72.2-0.68.417.610.411.813.8-14.22.718.420.4146.0
202111.312.6-10.9-11.2-2.38.7-1.6-4.6-0.61.80.1-0.6-0.7
2022-0.10.0-0.2-13.91.8-10.40.6-17.9-0.8-0.1-0.1-0.1-36.0
2023-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.139.012.810.3-20.0-9.8-16.512.9-3.213.3
20245.83.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-16.2-12.9
2025-1.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/17/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age113 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1635
# Profitable528
% Profitable32.3%
Avg trade duration19.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown63.5%
drawdown periodFeb 16, 2021 - Jan 15, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)9.4%
Avg win$250
Avg loss$101

Ratios

W:L ratio1.20
Sharpe Ratio0.34
Sortino Ratio0.50
Calmar Ratio0.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.23
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life225.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-95.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity155.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss67.5%
Chance of 20% account loss42.5%
Chance of 30% account loss23.0%
Chance of 40% account loss9.5%
Chance of 50% account loss3.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$101
Avg Win$250
# Winners528
Sum Trade PL (losers)$111,869
Sum Trade PL (winners)$131,860
Num Months Winners41
# Losers1107
% Winners32.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1950

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table113

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)28430.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)473.84
Avg Trade Length19.70
Last Trade Ago582

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.35
Daily leverage (max)5.32

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.33
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades377.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.40
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.84
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats86.32
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.19
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.07
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df85
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio1.05
Upside Potential Ratio2.73
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms48
N of observations86
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error84
t(b)3.24
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.13
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df85
t1.07
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio2.35
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms48
N of observations86
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.02
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error84
t(b)3.37
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.16
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df1890
t1.64
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.34
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio7.21
Upside part of mean1.29
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms745
N negative terms1146
N of observations1891
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1889
t(b)10.35
p(b)0.35
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.13
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df1890
t1.30
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio6.97
Upside part of mean1.27
Downside part of mean-1.15
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms745
N negative terms1146
N of observations1891
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1889
t(b)10.44
p(b)0.35
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6840214844604416
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.03998782041784e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations86
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.51
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations1891
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low208
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high191
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.05
Median0.13
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.20
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations43
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.50
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.76
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.51
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-415989504
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1429
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.03
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.18
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3868 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ALLT long1000Dec 30, 2024Jan 31, 2025$2,015
ACHR long240Dec 27, 2024Jan 13, 2025($647)
RCAT long450Dec 30, 2024Jan 8, 2025($668)
BBAI long1200Dec 30, 2024Jan 8, 2025($1,276)
REAL long480Dec 27, 2024Jan 2, 2025($672)
RKLB long420Dec 27, 2024Jan 2, 2025($1,323)
SOUN long360Dec 27, 2024Dec 31, 2024($1,272)
SKYT long300Dec 27, 2024Dec 30, 2024($602)
AAPL long55Nov 7, 2023Feb 14, 2024$148
CRWD long27Nov 7, 2023Feb 14, 2024$3,784
MSFT long27Nov 7, 2023Feb 14, 2024$1,281
ADBE long27Nov 7, 2023Feb 14, 2024$456
DKNG long140Nov 7, 2023Dec 18, 2023($46)
PLTR long250Nov 7, 2023Dec 18, 2023($298)
NVDA long20Aug 29, 2023Oct 31, 2023($1,475)
PLTR long375Aug 30, 2023Oct 30, 2023($556)
ADBE long18Aug 31, 2023Oct 27, 2023($908)
MMYT long120Oct 10, 2023Oct 26, 2023($594)
DUOL long60Sep 18, 2023Oct 26, 2023($1,475)
CLS long136Sep 11, 2023Oct 26, 2023($129)
SMCI long15Oct 10, 2023Oct 20, 2023($944)
VRT long120Oct 10, 2023Oct 19, 2023($610)
LI long150Aug 30, 2023Sep 25, 2023($669)
NVMI long146Aug 30, 2023Sep 15, 2023($788)
AVGO long16Jul 12, 2023Aug 16, 2023($839)
NVDA long50Aug 15, 2023Aug 16, 2023($642)
NVDA long98Jul 12, 2023Aug 14, 2023($3,226)
PLTR long235Jul 12, 2023Jul 25, 2023($18)
AI long100Jun 6, 2023Jul 12, 2023$249
SHOP long400Jun 6, 2023Jul 12, 2023$6

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.